(Analysis) New poll: Communists - 25.3%; LibDems rise to 20%; Dems rise to 15.6%; Liberals - 9.3%; Moldova Noastra - 4.5%

The Association of Demographers and Sociologists (ADS) held a press conference today, during which they presented the results of a new opinion poll in the country.

The poll was conducted on a sample of 2,010 respondents between January 2-10, 2010. The margin of error is 2.5 percent.

About 25% of respondents said they would vote for the Party of Communists, followed by the Liberal Democrats (20%), the Democratic Party (15.6%), the Liberal Party (9.3%), and the Moldova Noastra [Our Moldova] Alliance (4.5%).

The Communists seem to be losing popularity as the LibDems and the Democrats are gaining in polls. In part, the latter two parties seem to be growing stronger on account of their leaders. Democratic Party head Marian Lupu is the ruling Alliance's presidential candidate and is widely seen as the most likely person to become head of state. The Liberal Democratic Party head, Vlad Filat, is the Moldovan Prime Minister. Analysts have said that he has been performing well thus far.

The Liberals, which represent the more right-wing part of the political spectrum (adamantly pro-Romanian, pro-Western, and pro-American), seem to be stagnating despite its leaders holding the interim Presidency and the Speakership (Mihai Ghimpu), as well as the Chisinau mayoral seat (Dorin Chirtoaca).

Moldova Noastra has been going through internal turmoil in the last few months as some of its leading members have left to join a small pro-Western party called the Actiunea Europeana [European Action] Movement. It is not yet clear if this party will manage to cross the five-percent electoral threshold to gain seats in the legislature.

The poll does not yet reveal what effect the defection of four Communist M.P.s will have on the Communists' popularity, or whether a recent announcement made by Moldovan millionnaire Nicolae Ciornii about the formation of another left-wing party will have an impact on the preferences of the electorate.

For now, it looks like the center-right side of the political spectrum is consolidating around the LibDems and the Liberals. The center-left spectrum is slowly being overtaken by the Democrats. The Communists are still holding on to leftist voters.

The last time the ADS released a poll was in July 2009, shortly before the July 29 legislative election. Then, results showed that the Communists would receive 29.7 percent, followed by the Liberal Party (13.3%), the Liberal Democratic Party (12.8%), the Moldova Noastra Alliance (7.9%), and the Democratic Party (7.1%).

The Communists ended up winning 44% of the vote, followed by the Liberal Democrats (16.57%), the Liberal Party (14.68%), the Democratic Party (12.54%), and Moldova Noastra (7.35%).