(ANALYSIS) Will Moldova hold early elections?

The Alliance for European Integration's (AEI) recent announcement that it would seek to change the Moldovan Constitution via a referendum led to a series of speculations about whether this plan would allow the country to avoid yet another early legislative election. Interim President Mihai Ghimpu certainly seems to think so, but his other coalition partners are less sanguine about the possibility.

The AEI is hoping to move very quickly in the next few months, come up with a project for a new Constitution, and then ask Moldovans to vote on it during the summer. In theory, the new Constitution would not require for Parliament to be dissolved and the Alliance could stay in power for the full four years.

Most analysts are skeptical about this plan, however, and Alliance members themselves seem to be backing down from the intention already. The Venice Commision recently released a notice recommending that Parliament be dismissed by June 16 and that new elections be called. Prime Minister Vlad Filat immediately replied that given this institution's position, "early elections are inevitable."

In a related news story, Communist head Vladimir Voronin has announced that his party would be willing to help change the article on the presidential election if the Alliance calls early elections. At the moment, the head of state needs to be elected with the vote of 61 M.P.s. Neither the Communists nor the Alliance have that number. The president could be elected with a simple majority if the ruling coalition and the opposition agree.

In short, it looks like the Alliance's early announcement about a referendum may not materialize given the reluctance of European institutions to accept it. For this reason, the Party of Communists (PC) seems to have scored a short-term gain because it has been the most vocal supporter of early elections. The PC can also position itself as being in full agreement with the Venice Commission. On the other hand, the ruling Alliance could very well argue to its electorate that it sought constitutional change but had to change plans because European institutions disagreed.

Whatever the case may be, it still remains unclear whether Moldova will have early elections. The possibility is certainly higher now that the Alliance is seemingly going to have to convince both the Communists and European institutions that the adoption of a new Constitution very soon is a good idea.